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By Claudia Assis, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures inched down Thursday, failing to extend their winning streak to a third day as a rising dollar crimped commodities.
Traders reported quieter desks and thin volumes ahead of Monday’s Labor Day holiday in the U.S., making for a volatile week in commodities.
The price of gold could fall by one-third from its recent high. But the long-term case for the metal remains intact.
Gold for December delivery declined $1.10, or 0.1%, to $1,830.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold has settled higher for the past two sessions.
In the absence of much news and ahead of the holiday, the stronger dollar was the main source of pressure for gold, said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at MF Global in Chicago.
“With strength in the dollar it is hard to paint a positive picture for gold in the short term,” he said.
Some support came from lower U.S. equities, as some investors held on to their metal positions instead of switching to equities as they had in the recent past, Klopfenstein added.
U.S. stocks opened modestly higher but recently turned lower after flip-flopping in early trading.
“In the near term, there may be more room to the downside for gold,” said Jim Steel, an analyst with HSBC, in a note to clients. “In absence of any major event, the steep ($50 an ounce) rally earlier this week may encourage profit-taking. The downside should be limited, however,” he added.
The dollar index which compares the U.S. unit to a basket of six currencies, traded at 74.432 from 74.162 in North American trade late Wednesday.
A higher dollar is usually negative for commodities as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Silver prices turned higher, with the December contract the most active, advancing 46 cents, or 0.1%, to $41.75 per ounce.
Mexico has overtaken Peru as the world’s largest silver producer, HSBC’s Steel said, citing figures from Mexico’s statistics agency.
In the first half of 2011, Mexico’s total silver output was 1.88 million metric tons, compared to Peru’s 1.63 million metric tons, according to official data.
Mexico reported June production at 301,637 kilograms, up 4.2% from the previous month.
Silver mine production has been “robust,” unlike gold and other metals production, Steel said. “We expect this to help restrain silver gains,” he added.